COVID-19 Mortality Risk Calculator

Symptoms of COVID-19 are non-specific, and the disease can present itself in many forms, from no symptoms (asymptomatic), to severe pneumonia and death.

According to WHO, typical signs and symptoms include:

• Fever;
• Dry cough;
• Fatigue;
• Sputum production;
• Shortness of breath;
• Sore throat;
• Headache;
• Myalgia or arthralgia;
• Chills;
• Nausea or vomiting;
• Nasal congestion; and
• Diarrhea.

Fortunately, most people suffering from COVID-19 (81%) generally develop signs and symptoms that can be classified as mild or asymptomatic. However, 14% people develop severe symptoms, and, for 5%, they can be critical (i.e., respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure).

As the coronavirus outbreak continues, many people have started to compare COVID-19 to the seasonal flu. Both are respiratory diseases, yet there are important differences between the two viruses that cause these diseases. The symptoms might be similar - mostly asymptomatic or mild, but can result in a severe disease or death. While the range of symptoms might be similar, the fraction of people developing a severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen, and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. The amount of severe and critical infections is higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

Mortality for COVID-19 also appears to be higher than for the flu. It will take some time to fully understand it, but the current data suggests that its crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%. In comparison, for seasonal flu, mortality is usually well below 0.1%.

Old age is one of the strongest factors that cause severe COVID-19–associated outcomes. Research shows that patients over 50 years old have a significantly higher risk of a severe illness, with the highest mortality being among people over 80 years of age.

The table below shows the death rate for different age groups:

⚠️ Recent data from New York City Health (April 14th, 2020) showed 3 deaths in the age group 0 - 17 years old. All children had underlying conditions that included diabetes, lung disease, cancer, immunodeficiency, heart disease, hypertension, asthma, kidney disease, or GI/liver disease.

At this early stage of pandemic, it is still not possible to provide a clear answer to the question how sex influences the health outcomes of people diagnosed with coronavirus. So far, data suggest that both sexes are equally likely to get infected, however men are more likely to die due to infection (death rate in all cases: 2.8% vs 1.7%).

Here are some possible explanations:

• differences in immune system responses;
• men are more likely to suffer from other pre-existing medical conditions that may increase the fatality rate (e.g. cardiovascular disease);
• lower use of medical services; and
• other social and structural inequalities (e.g. ethnicity, disability).

Data suggest that patients with underlying health conditions and risk factors might be at a higher risk of a severe disease or death from COVID-19.

These include:

• Cardiovascular disease;
• Diabetes mellitus;
• Chronic respiratory disease;
• Hypertension;
• Malignant disease/cancer;
• Cerebrovascular disease;
• Chronic renal disease; and
• Smoking.

Read more about these morbidities in our CVD risk calculator, blood pressure calculator, and diabetes risk calculator.

Below, you can learn what actions you can take (based on your conditions) to protect yourself.

• Cardiovascular disease and hypertension:
  • Take your medication exactly as prescribed;
  • Make sure that you have at least a two-week supply of your heart disease medications (those include antihypertensive drugs or drugs to treat high cholesterol); and
  • Control your blood pressure as directed.
• Diabetes:
  • Continue taking diabetes pills and/or insulin as usual;
  • Make sure that you have at least a two-week supply of your medication;
  • Test your blood sugar as often as the doctor ordered and keep track of the results; and
  • Follow the sick day guidelines for people with diabetes if you get sick.
• Chronic respiratory disease:
  • Continue taking your medication as prescribed;
  • If you need to use inhalers, make sure that you know how to use them; and
  • Avoid triggers that make your symptoms worse.
• People aged 65 or older:
  • Take medications for any underlying health conditions exactly as prescribed;
  • Be prepared to stay at home for long periods of time (food, medicines supply);
  • Develop a document that summarizes your current health conditions and treatment plan (you can use this care plan provided by CDC).